The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate An Eygptian Experience

Abstract

The economy of a nation is driven by a robust securities market. The growth of a nation is indubitably based on the strength and stability of its secondary market systems and intermediaries. The mobilization of funds and its flow into diverse sectors of the economy in a regulated manner signifies dynamism and progress. The Egyptian economy has been in a trajectory of progress right since the establishment of its secondary market and its stock index EGX 30 in 2009. The Egyptian pound (EGP) has been focus of Egyptian monetary policy due to undue stress on the pound during the recent years. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has been in the forefront of all monetary measures to stabilise the pound. The growth and development of a nation is charted by the changing economic and business environment. Any change in the foreign exchange market is sure to leave its footprint in the secondary market. All researchers in the field of foreign exchange management have been intrigued by the relationship between secondary market and forex market. Many an investigation has been undertaken to find if there is a significant relation between stock prices and exchange rates. The recent transition in Egyptian economy to a floating rate mechanism and efforts to stabilize the pound have attracted researchers to find out the effects of such a monetary change. The relationship between securities market and forex market has to be given a serious thought before any decision pertaining to forex market policy and regulation. This study analyses the dynamic relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Egypt using Engle-Granger cointegration methodology and Granger causality test.