The Dynamic Interplay between Recorded Music and Live Concerts: The Role of Piracy, Unbundling, and Artist Characteristics

Abstract

The business model for musicians relies on selling recorded music and selling concert tickets. Traditionally, demand for one format (e.g., concerts) would stimulate demand for the other format (e.g., recorded music) and vice versa, leading to an upward demand spiral. However, the market for recorded music is under pressure due to piracy and the unbundling of albums, which also entail threats for the traditional demand spiral. Despite the fundamental importance of recorded music and live concerts for the multibillion-dollar music industry, no prior research has studied their dynamic interplay. This study fills this void by developing new theory on how piracy, unbundling, artist fame, and music quality affect dynamic cross-format elasticities between record demand and concert demand. The theory is tested with a unique data set covering weekly concert and recorded music revenues for close to 400 artists across more than six years in the world's third-largest music market, Germany. The cross-format elasticity of record on concert revenue is much stronger than the reverse elasticity of concert on record revenue. The results show the key role of piracy, unbundling, and artist characteristics on these cross-format elasticities, which have implications for the business model of the music industry.