The Dynamic Influence of Fiscal Expenditure on Farmers’ Income in Guangdong Province Based on the Vector Autoregression Model

Abstract

Using the skew integration theory and the establishment of a vector autoregression model (Var) to analyze the dynamic impact of fiscal expenditure on annual per capita net income of farmers, wage income, net operating income of farmers, and transferability and property income in Guangdong province from 1998 to 2019, the empirical findings show that government spending has a considerable favourable influence on farmers’ yearly per capita net income, family operating net income, transferability, and property income. Fiscal spending has a lag time on the rise of yearly per capita disposable income, family operating net income, transfers, and property income, according to impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, and then the contribution steadily grows. The government should continue to expand fiscal expenditure for agriculture, improving the marketing channel of agricultural products, to strengthen the efficiency of agricultural production, establishing agricultural project comprehensive evaluation standard and characteristic agriculture, vigorously develop rural fiscal agriculture capital allocation efficiency, and increase farmers’ families annual per capita net income, net income of household operation, and transfer and property income.