The dynamic impact of land use change on ecosystem services as the fast GDP growth in Guiyang city

Abstract

The rapid growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in developing countries may lead to the overconsumption of ecosystem services (ESs). This situation presents as the imbalance of ecological conservation and economic development, as is the case in areas of West China, such as Guiyang city. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios and the InVEST model to assess the ESs in relation to rapid GDP growth in Guiyang city. The research findings reveal the following: 1) the growth of developed land contributes to ecosystem degradation and increased potential ecological hazards. The implementation of GDP growth policies may be the potential driver of land use change and a factor influencing changes in ESs. For example, between 2010 and 2020, the area of developed land increased by 339%, but the soil retention and carbon storage decreased by 2.04% and 3.26%, respectively. 2) The changes in GDP and ESs showed spatial heterogeneity. From 2020 to 2030, the general hot spot distribution of ESs and GDP was consistent, which was closely related to land use change. 3) Trade-offs and synergistic effects exist between GDP and ESs, including a trade-off between GDP and soil retention and synergy between GDP and water yield. GDP growth comes at the expense of ESs. The study emphasizes the need to prioritize ecological conservation in the degraded areas of southern Guiyang city. It urges stronger management of ecological redlines, stricter construction land policies, and a balanced approach to economic development and ecological protection.