The dynamic coupling mechanism of information and epidemic propagations considering individual mobility in two-layer network framework

Abstract

The epidemic had taken massive hurt on human beings for their lethal viruses and rapid spread, such as the outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19). How to control the virus spreading came to be a tough question and drew a lot of research attentions at that time. By the empirical data analysis from Shanghai China, we find information diffusion is co-evolving with epidemic spread, and vice versa. In order to reveal the coupling mechanism of epidemic spread and information diffusion, or the influencing factors on epidemic spread, we present a two-layer network framework to investigate the coupling mechanism of information diffusion and epidemic spread, and discuss the influencing factors. Thus, from the perspective of considering individual behaviors (such as individual mobility), a coupling propagation model of information diffusion and epidemic spread in two-layer network framework is proposed by dynamic equations. With the theoretical and numerical analysis, it is found epidemic spread might be influenced by epidemic itself mechanism and individual mobility indicated by mobility frequency and range to a certain extent from the micro perspective. Moreover, the role of individual mobility in promoting or delaying epidemic spread depends on the distribution of epidemic network. While from the macro perspective, it is found that promoting information diffusion in social networks could reduce the epidemic spread scales effectively by calculating the epidemic threshold and comparing with Monte Carlo (MC) simulation experiments. In addition, the global control strength from government or social organizations is also a key factor for reducing epidemic spread. Results in this work provide some reasonable and practical strategies for management on epidemic prevention and control in future.