The dynamic complementarity of renewable energy sources: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT The climate factors are the main driving forces of variability of renewable energy sources. In facing the safety challenges of the large-scale grid integration of renewable energy, it is important to understand the effects of climate shocks on the generation of the renewables as well as if the complementarity among different types of renewable energy exist and could be employed to smooth out the production and better match with the load. We employ a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model along with impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition to investigate the dynamic complementarity among renewable energy in the face of different climate shocks. The proposed methodology is applied over Qinghai employing the power generation data as well as meteorological data. The results show that there is greater general complementarity between solar power and hydropower. Wind power and solar power, and wind power and hydropower, exhibit dynamic complementarity when there are fluctuations in precipitation and wind speed, respectively. China should make efficient use of the natural complementarity advantages between renewable energy sources, carry out joint optimal dispatching, and accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.