The dynamic analysis of a vehicle pollutant emission reduction management model under economic means

Abstract

Aimed at the problem of traffic congestion and vehicle pollutant emissions, this paper utilized a system dynamics approach to construct an air pollution charging fee management model from the perspective of social and environmental benefits. The gray system theory was used to determine the major parameters and equations. On this basis, taking Beijing as a case study, simulation analysis of the major variables was conducted using the sensitivity analysis principle. Moreover, a reasonable range for air pollution charging fee was determined using the principle of marginal utility. Lastly, the different combinations of subsidy and air pollution charging fee were compared to explore their respective ranges and obtain the following conclusions: (1) To a certain extent, the amount of PMx generation, degree of air pollution, amount of motor vehicle trips, and degree of traffic congestion declined with the increase in the air pollution charging fee. However, the air pollution charging fee policy implementation influenced modes of transport, as some citizens turned to public transportation, which increased the burden on public transport. Therefore, we needed to consider a subsidy policy to improve the supply level of public traffic. (2) A single subsidy policy will limit the magnitude of the degree of traffic congestion, amount of PMx generation, and degree of air pollution reductions. (3) There were three effects to combining the subsidy policy with the air pollution charging fee: it relieved the degree of traffic congestion and reduced PMx emissions, inhibited the intensity of “haze pollution,” and improved the supply level of public traffic. (4) Compared with a low air pollution fee of 2 yuan/day*vehicle, our model projects that by 2025, a policy combining a higher air pollution fee (50 yuan/day*vehicle) with a public transportation subsidy will reduce air pollution about 19% and increase the supply of public transportation by about 88%.