The durability of previous examinations for cancer: Danish nationwide cohort study

Abstract

Objective Patients previously examined for cancer with a negative result may present in general practice with ongoing or new symptoms or signs suggestive of cancer. This paper explores the potential existence of a relatively safe period for cancer occurrence after receiving negative examination results for specific types of cancer, including lung (CT thorax), upper gastrointestinal (gastroscopy), colorectal (colonoscopy), bladder (cystoscopy), and breast (clinical mammography). Design Register-based time-to-event analyses. Setting Denmark. Subjects All 3.3 million citizens aged 30–85 years who on January first, 2017, had not previously been diagnosed with the specific type of cancer were categorized based on the time since their most recent examination. Main outcome measures Using 1-year follow-up, we calculated the age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios of being diagnosed with the related cancer, with non-examined individuals as reference. Negative examination results were defined as the absence of a cancer diagnosis within 6 months following the examination. Results Previous negative examination results were common, also among those diagnosed with cancer during follow-up. For 10 years after a negative colonoscopy the risk of diagnosing a colorectal cancer was nearly halved. However, already 1 year after a clinical mammography and 2 years after a CT thorax the risk of diagnosing the related cancers was significantly higher among those with a previous negative result compared to non-examined individuals. Conclusion This study did not identify a post-examination period in which the cancer risk, compared to non-examined individuals, was sufficiently low to confidently rule out any of the investigated cancers.