The Drop in Juvenile Delinquency in The Netherlands: Changes in Exposure to Risk and Protection

Abstract

Since 2007, juvenile crime in the Netherlands has dropped. Changes in exposure or vulnerability to risk and protective factors could offer an explanation for this drop. Data from three cohorts of the Youth Delinquency Survey (2005, 2010, and 2015; n = 4,855) were used. ANOVAs were conducted to measure differences between cohorts in exposure to risk and protective factors. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to measure differences between cohorts in vulnerability. Results suggest that the 2015 cohort was less exposed to risk factors – eg alcohol use and delinquent peers – and more exposed to protective factors – eg perceived parental emotional support and monitoring – compared to previous cohorts. Serious delinquents showed stability across the cohorts in reported offenses. Changing social-cultural attitudes toward risk behaviors over time offer an additional explanation for the juvenile crime drop. Implications for the prevention of delinquency are discussed from the perspectives of both Preventive Science and Positive Youth Development.