Abstract
Dengue fever has rapidly spread in recent decades to become the most globally expansive viral vector-borne disease. In mainland China, a number of dengue outbreaks have been reported since 1978, but the worst epidemic in decades, involving 45230 cases and 76 imported cases, resulting in six deaths in Guangdong province, emerged in 2014. Reasons for this ongoing surge in dengue, both imported and autochthonous, are currently unclear and demand urgent investigation. Here, a seasonally-driven dynamic epidemiological model was used to simulate dengue transmission data recorded from the unprecedented outbreak. Sensitivity analysis demonstrate that delayed mosquito control, the continuous importations between the end of April to the early of July, the transmission of asymptomatic dengue infections, and the abnormally high precipitation from May to August might be the causal factors for the unprecedented outbreak. Our results suggested that the earlier and more frequent control measures in targeting immature and adult mosquitoes were effective in preventing larger outbreaks, and enhanced frontier health and quarantine from the end of April to the early of July for international communications and travelers.
Highlights
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection causing a severe flu-like illness, and sometimes causing a potentially lethal complication called severe dengue [1]
In 2014, an unexpectedly large dengue epidemic was reported in Guangdong, involving 45230 cases and 76 imported cases in Guangdong province, and exceeding the cumulative number of cases from 1990 to 2013
To investigate the causal factor for 2014 dengue outbreak of Guangdong, we developed a seasonally-driven dynamic epidemiological model of dengue transmission between human and mosquito hosts that takes into account the transmission both imported dengue cases and asymptomatically infected cases
Summary
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection causing a severe flu-like illness, and sometimes causing a potentially lethal complication called severe dengue [1]. The significance of dengue as a threat to health and a burden on health services and economies has increased substantially. Almost half the world’s population lives in at risk regions for dengue virus transmission, and the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 50–100 million dengue infections occur annually in over 100 endemic countries in Africa, America, Southeast. More than 70% of people at risk reside in the Asia Pacific region, making this region the global epicenter of dengue activity [2]. Dengue can be transmitted by PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0166211. Dengue can be transmitted by PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0166211 November 18, 2016
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