The Driftless Oaks: A new network of tree-ring chronologies to improve regional perspectives of drought in the Upper Midwest, USA

Abstract

New and updated multi-century tree-ring chronologies from living oak trees, remnants, and archeological beams from across the Driftless Area of southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa, USA, were developed to fill a spatial gap in the network of available tree-ring chronologies. We produced a robust 303-year summer drought reconstruction (June–August Palmer’s Modified Drought Index (PMDI): r 2 = 0.45) that identified clusters of extreme droughts and pluvials (PMDI ≤ –4.0 or ≥ 4.0) in the early 1700s and more even distributions of drought conditions, with the exception of the post 1930s period when drought became relatively infrequent. Compared to the Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA) and the North American Drought Atlas (NADA), our reconstruction more accurately represented moderate moisture conditions across the Driftless Area, the NADA and LBDA more closely represented extreme pluvials, and our reconstruction and the LBDA better represented extreme drought years. The three reconstructions largely captured the same high-frequency variability in drought conditions and differed most at low frequencies. Significant correlations were identified between our reconstruction and corn ( r = 0.30, n = 91, p = 0.002) and soybean ( r = 0.25, n = 81, p = 0.012) yields, with the strength of the correlations increasing over recent decades suggesting a tighter coupling of interannual climate variability and crop productivity in the region. Superposed epoch analyses indicated significantly wetter conditions in the Driftless Area two years after major volcanic eruptions. In the context of long-term climatic variability, the Driftless Oaks drought reconstruction demonstrated that drought and pluvial conditions more extreme than those experienced during the instrumental record have occurred in the past.