The DPSIR Approach for Coastal Risk Assessment under Climate Change at Regional Scale: The Case of Apulian Coast (Italy)

Maria Francesca Bruno,Matteo Gianluca Molfetta,Leonardo Damiani,Alessandra Saponieri

doi:10.3390/jmse8070531

Maria Francesca Bruno, Matteo Gianluca Molfetta + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8070531

Copy DOI

Abstract

In the present paper, the coastal risk is assessed, at a regional scale, to produce a risk map that will help to prioritize policies and economic resources in coastal management and planning activities. The DPSIR method is here used taking into account processes and cause/effect relationship between Drivers and Pressures, which induce an alteration of actual State and, hence, Impacts on the environment, society and economy. The study area is located in South Italy (Apulia region), where the Risk Index is calculated and mapped for all municipalities facing the Adriatic and Ionian Seas. Both coastal Vulnerability and Exposure Indexes are firstly calculated according to the procedure suggested in the EUrosion project (EU model) as the product of specific indicators describing the state of coastal zones, their natural characteristics and both natural and anthropic pressures. Based on both EU model results and knowledge of states and pressures of the study area, a new modified model is then proposed (Mod.E.M.) and final risk maps compared. The comparison shows that new Vulnerability and Exposure indexes better describe the ongoing coastal processes and pressures and allow us to identify hot-spot sites where more detailed analyses could be further focused on. The Mod.E.M. has more than just a local significance since the case study includes coastal areas with so different characteristics, that it can be easily applied to other coastal regions. Moreover, to take into account climate change effects, Risk Index is evaluated under Representative Concentration Pathways R C P 4.5 and R C P 8.5 , mainly affecting the sea level rise and the storm surge level.

Highlights

Over the last decades, coastal risk assessment has become the first step in all strategic planning and management activities
The ARICE indicator reaches the high or medium score in almost all the municipalities, while the highest scores in HHRICE can be found in PU2 and PU7
The DPSIR model is used here for defining a risk map at the municipal scale to identify coastal areas more exposed to erosion and flooding risk

Summary

Introduction

Coastal risk assessment has become the first step in all strategic planning and management activities. Coastal areas are exposed to risk drivers and are subject to a gradual weakening of the environmental asset, affecting economic development and coastal community lifestyle (e.g., [1,2]). The wide extension of coastal areas that must be protected requires economic investments that are often unsustainable for public administrations [4]. To support decision-makers in managing and prioritizing the interventions, the basic principles of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) have to be followed through the definition of a coastal Risk Index. To create effective sustainable development policies, a correct balance between human, environmental, infrastructural, social and economic factors must be ensured, according to a cause—conditions—effect sequence, enabling a multidisciplinary and integrated vision of the overall environmental processes

Objectives

Results

Conclusion