Abstract
Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM.
Highlights
Research is increasingly showing that agricultural crop yields will be susceptible to future changes in temperature, precipitation, length of growing seasons, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]
We systematically explore the implications of changes to domestic and international temperature and precipitation for U.S agricultural crop production using a regionally-resolved, global scale model of energy, land, economic, and climate systems: the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)
We explore sensitivity to spatially heterogeneous future impacts by incorporating a subset of the 35 yield change scenarios from the AgMIP global gridded crop model (GGCM) intercomparison study [8] into GCAM’s exogenous agricultural assumptions
Summary
Research is increasingly showing that agricultural crop yields will be susceptible to future changes in temperature, precipitation, length of growing seasons, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]. The U.S is both a major agricultural importer and exporter of agricultural crops, meaning that U.S agriculture may be affected by future climate in the U.S, and future climate outside of the U.S via international trade. These international linkages raise questions about the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects on U.S agriculture; that is, is the potential for changes in temperature and precipitation in the U.S (referred to here as domestic effects) more or less important than the potential for changes outside of the U.S (referred to here as international effects) to U.S agricultural crop producers?
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