Abstract
I link deviations from forward-spot parity for currencies and commodities. The key is to think of the U.S. dollar as a “commodity.” When commodity spot prices are too high compared to futures, arbitrageurs will short the commodity and bank dollars. When physical scarcity constrains commodity borrowing, the result is a positive convenience yield. In the currency space, it is the dollar itself that needs to be shorted, with proceeds converted spot and deposited in foreign currency. When dollars are hard to borrow, covered interest parity (CIP) deviations arise. Thus, a negative “cross-currency basis” is the U.S. dollar’s positive convenience yield.
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