Abstract
The outlines of a potential agreement, emerging after seven years of negotiations, imply that Doha offers three key potential benefits: reduced uncertainty of market access in goods and services; improved market access in agriculture and manufacturing; and the mobilization of resources to deal with the trade problems of least developed countries. WTO Members have offered to make large reductions in legally bound levels of protection in goods and services. The reductions in currently applied levels of protection are smaller. For the least developed countries, the proposed ‘duty free and quota free’ access will only add significantly to their access under existing preferential access arrangements if industrial and developing country members include vital tariff lines. The initiatives on trade facilitation and aid for trade can play a valuable catalytic role in promoting reform and mobilizing assistance, but substantial effort is still needed to translate notional benefits into actual gain.
Highlights
The outlines of a potential agreement (WTO 2008a,b,c), emerging after seven years of negotiations, imply that Doha offers three key benefits: enhanced security of market access in goods and services; improved market access in agriculture and manufacturing; and the mobilization of resources to deal with the trade problems of least developed countries
If the formulae for agriculture and non-agricultural market access (NAMA) were applied without exceptions, the average applied tariff would fall to 2.5 percent and the average bound rate to 5.7 percent
In the high income country group, the formulae without flexibilities would lead to extremely large cuts in agricultural tariffs, with average bound tariffs falling by 58 percent from their initial level and applied tariffs by half
Summary
A central goal of the WTO process is to improve the market access opportunities and the security of market access of its members. These cuts are sharply reduced by the presence of country exceptions, and by the flexibilities for sensitive and special products With these exceptions, the reduction in the world average bound rate drops to just over a quarter, and the average applied tariff falls by one-fifth, from 14.5 percent to 11.8 percent. In the high income country group, the formulae without flexibilities would lead to extremely large cuts in agricultural tariffs, with average bound tariffs falling by 58 percent from their initial level and applied tariffs by half. In the non-LDC developing country group, the initial tariff is 19.1 percent and application of the formula without flexibilities would result in a cut in the average tariff of 43 percentage points.
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