Abstract
Does ethnic diversity increase or reduce white threat perceptions? Meta-analyses help orient a field and communicate findings to policymakers. We report the results of a meta-analysis of studies measuring the relationship between ethnic context and both opposition to immigration and support for anti-immigration parties. Our analysis attempts to be exhaustive, and is based on 171 post-1995 studies averaging 25,000 observations each, a knowledge base of over 4 million data points. We find a linear association between ethnic change and elevated threat. However, for diversity levels, the relationship between ethnic context and threat is nonlinear. This takes the form of a 'wave', with higher diversity predicting threat responses at the smallest and largest scales, whereas in units of 5000–10,000 people (such as tracts or neighbourhoods), diversity is associated with reduced threat.
Highlights
How does rising ethnic diversity in the West affect perceptions of threat among native-born white majorities? In the social sciences there is a vast and expanding body of research on how the surrounding ethnic context –whether at the local, regional or national level-impacts upon majority perceptions and behaviour
Our meta-analysis provides a quantitative analysis of all work we could find on ethnic diversity and how it relates to immigration attitudes and support for the radical right
There is a vast literature on the political effects of rising ethnic diversity, notably the relationship between ethnic context and public support for anti-immigrant radical right parties
Summary
How does rising ethnic diversity in the West affect perceptions of threat among native-born white majorities? In the social sciences there is a vast and expanding body of research on how the surrounding ethnic context –whether at the local, regional or national level-impacts upon majority perceptions and behaviour. In the form of anti-black prejudice and politics, has a long scholarly pedigree (i.e. Key, 1949; Blalock, 1967) This has received more attention following a controversial paper published nearly ten years ago in which Robert Putnam (2007) suggested that rising immigration and ethnic diversity –at least in the short-term- tends to reduce social solidarity. Political contestation increases in larger units (Ha, 2010: 30) This macro-threat argument intimates that geography moderates the diversity-threat relationship in linear fashion: as the size of unit increases, the effect of increased ethnic diversity shifts from reducing to enhancing perceptions of threat among native whites. The micro-threat claim appears to run counter to both contact and macro-threat perspectives
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