The distributional impact of fiscal measures to compensate for consumer inflation in Greece in 2022

Abstract

This paper analyses the distributional implications of consumer inflation in Greece and of the fiscal measures adopted to cushion its adverse impact on households in 2022. The analysis employs the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) to study how inflation, income support measures, as well as measures aimed at containing prices affected households’ purchasing power and welfare across the income distribution. The study confirms that the purchasing power of lower-income households was more severely affected by the 2022 inflation surge than that of higher-income households, resulting in the so-called inflation gap. The unequal impact of inflation was further magnified by the high shares of consumption in the income of the poorer, resulting in a welfare loss differential of 9.2 percentage points between the bottom and the top income decile. The adverse distributional impact of the inflationary shock was largely offset by government policies, with a welfare loss of only 2.9% remaining for the population as a whole. Fiscal measures were shown to close the inflation gap and mitigated the welfare loss differential between the poor and the rich to just 0.7 percentage points. Price measures were dominant vis-à-vis their income counterparts in compensating for welfare losses across the income distribution and, most interestingly, had a significant progressive impact largely driven by the electricity subsidy, as the support provided was inversely related to consumption. However, given that they were not as well-targeted to low-income households, they were relatively cost-inefficient when compared with income measures. Nonetheless, the efficiency advantage of income measures may be severely undermined in the presence of extensive tax evasion, which points not only to the need for a careful design of targeted measures, but also to complementarities with structural reforms fighting tax evasion.