Abstract
Poorer, hotter countries are more vulnerable to climate change and will experience more negative impacts. The pattern of vulnerability between countries is used to impute impacts for income deciles within countries, for administrative regions, and for grid cells. Almost three-quarters of people will face worse impacts than their country average. Between-country variation is larger than within-country variation for income deciles and regions, and about as large for grid cells. I here revisit earlier estimates of the economic impact of climate change and extend the analysis to impute the distribution of impacts withincountries.
Highlights
Poorer countries are more vulnerable to climate change
Estimates of the economic impact of climate change are important because they form the basis for estimates of the benefits of climate policy and, in the form of the social costs of carbon, directly compare to the costs of greenhouse gas emission reduction
A meta-analysis of previously published estimates of the economic impact of climate change shows that poorer people in hotter places are more vulnerable to climate change
Summary
Poorer countries are more vulnerable to climate change. This qualitative insight has long been around,[1] but quantification has lagged as estimating the impacts of climate change is difficult. Estimates of the economic impact of climate change are important because they form the basis for estimates of the benefits of climate policy and, in the form of the social costs of carbon, directly compare to the costs of greenhouse gas emission reduction The distribution of those impacts between and within countries matters because the global total impact and the social cost of carbon are sensitive to its distribution3–6—unless one assumes that utility is linear in consumption[7] or that impacts of climate change will be compensated.[8] high and low impacts are not random, but rather depend on fundamental factors at least some of which are partially malleable by policy.[9] The distribution of impacts between countries informs international climate negotiations, especially on the discussion around loss and damage and the implied historical responsibility and liability. The distribution of impacts within countries informs the targeting of national adaptation projects and other policy interventions to reduce vulnerability to climate change
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