Abstract

The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa, Bradypodidae) is endemic to a small area in the Atlantic Forest of coastal Brazil. It has been listed as a threatened species because of its restricted geographic range, habitat loss and fragmentation, and declining populations. The major objectives of this study were to estimate its potential geographic distribution, the climatic conditions across its distributional range, and to identify suitable areas and potential species strongholds. We developed a model of habitat suitability for the maned sloth using two methods, Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance, based on 42 occurrence points. We evaluated environmental variable importance and the predictive ability of the generated distribution models. Our results suggest that the species distribution could be strongly influenced by environmental factors, mainly temperature seasonality. The modeled distribution of the maned sloth included known areas of occurrence in the Atlantic Forest (Sergipe, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro), but did not match the observed distributional gaps in northern Rio de Janeiro, northern Espírito Santo or southern Bahia. Rather, the model showed that these areas are climatically suitable for the maned sloth, and thus suggests that factors other than climate might be responsible for the absence of species. Suitable areas for maned sloth were located mainly in the mountainous region of central Rio de Janeiro throughout Espírito Santo and to the coastal region of southern Bahia. We indicate 17 stronghold areas and recommended survey areas for the maned sloth. In addition, we highlight specific areas for conservation, including the current network protected areas. Our results can be applied for novel surveys and discovery of unknown populations, and help the selection of priority areas for management and conservation planning, especially of rare and relatively cryptic species directed associated with forested habitats.

Highlights

  • How to conserve a species in its geographic range, especially rare and threatened species, is the great question of Conservation Biology

  • Potential geographic distribution and habitat suitability In general, the ensemble predictions showed that suitable habitat for maned sloth is restricted to the coastline of Brazil

  • Potential geographic distribution and habitat suitability Our predicted potential geographic distribution of the maned sloth is similar to its documented range [27,60,61], but when compared with Fonseca & Aguiar [62], and more recently, with Hirsch and Chiarello [21], there are some important differences

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Summary

Introduction

How to conserve a species in its geographic range, especially rare and threatened species, is the great question of Conservation Biology. Useful niche-based approaches that identifies regions containing suitable environmental conditions based on habitat characteristics at locations of known species occurrences has been extensively applied in the last 20 years [8,9]. They are correlative species distribution modeling (SDM) [8] and these methods are required for many studies, for example, to predict ecological niche and geographical range of species [10,11,12,13], to create maps for conservation planning, and to manage species of conservation concern by predicting the occurrence of rare and threatened species [14,15,16,17]. We present an ecological niche model for predicting suitable habitat for the maned sloth (Bradypus torquatus) within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

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