The distribution of extreme share return in different Malaysian economic circumstances

Abstract

This study evaluated the performance of probability distribution in various financial periods by investigating the effect of economic cycle on extreme stock return activity. Malaysian stock price KLCI data from 1994–2008 were split into three economy periods correspond to the growth, financial crisis, and the recovery. Four prevalent distributions specifically generalized lambda distribution (GLD), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), and generalized pareto (GPA) were employed to model weekly and monthly maximum and minimum Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) share returns. The L-moment approach was used to estimate the parameter while k-sample Anderson darling (k-ad) test was applied to measure the goodness of fit estimation. In conclusion, GLD is the most appropriate distribution representing a weekly maximum minimum return for overall three economic scenarios in Malaysia.