The distribution model in the diffusion of innovations: a comparison of different European countries

Abstract

The objective of this study was two fold: first, we wanted to test the goodness of fit of different diffusion models that include the variable “distribution”, and then analyze the existence of the effects of “country” and “time” in the parameters of diffusion currently employed in different European countries. The literature on the matter suggests, on the one hand, that the diffusion models applied so far that employ multi‐equation systems are not obviously better than other single‐equation models that ignore marketing variables; and, on the other hand, that the socio‐economic environment and the time‐lag are both factors of the differences that the diffusion process offers among different geographical areas. As a novelty, our methodology proposes single‐equation models that include the distribution, to which several indicators of the goodness of fit are applied, along with statistical tests on the differences in parameters among countries. The empirical application carried out in Spain, France and Italy demonstrates the superiority of the model proposed here, based on the Generalized Bass model. It also indicates a “country” effect, between Spain and France as well as between Italy and France