The distinct problems of physical inconsistency and of multivariate bias involved in the statistical adjustment of climate simulations

Abstract

AbstractBias adjustment of numerical climate model simulations involves several arguments wherein the notion of physical inconsistency is referred to, either for rejecting the legitimacy of bias adjustment in general or for justifying the necessity of sophisticated multivariate techniques. However, this notion is often mishandled, in part because the literature generally proceeds without defining it. In this context, the central objective of this study is to clarify and illustrate the distinction between physical inconsistency and multivariate bias, by investigating the effect of bias adjustment on two different kinds of intervariable relationships, namely a physical constraint expected to hold at every step of a time series and statistical properties that emerge with potential bias over a climatic timescale. To this end, 18 alternative bias adjustment techniques are applied on 10 climate simulations at 12 sites over North America. Adjusted variables are temperature, pressure, relative humidity and specific humidity, linked by a thermodynamic constraint. The analysis suggests on the one hand that a clear instance of potential physical inconsistency can be avoided with either a univariate or a multivariate technique, if and only if the bias adjustment strategy explicitly considers the physical constraint to be preserved. On the other hand, it also suggests that sophisticated multivariate techniques alone are not complete adjustment strategies in presence of a physical constraint, as they cannot replace its explicit consideration. By involving common bias adjustment procedures with likely effects on diverse basic statistical properties, this study may also help guide climate information users in the determination of adequate bias adjustment strategies for their research purposes.