The disruptive impact of COVID-19 on air transportation: An ITS econometric analysis

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the destructive impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on air transport at the macro-regional level. To this end, weekly data on the air service volumes are analyzed through an ITS SARIMA model and a counterfactual analysis covering the 2016–2020. We find that the real effect of COVID-19 was a reduction above 80% in all world's macro-regions in May 2020, and still a decrease of about 70% at the end of the Summer 2020, with the only exception of China and Eastern Asia, and North America, where the reductions are, respectively, −29% and −54%. The empirical evidence confirms that the impact of the pandemic crisis and of the subsequent lockdown has been dramatic, much higher than any previous crisis. We also find that the impact is greater for intercontinental connections and for FSCs, while LCCs appear to be slightly more resilient. These results confirm that airline economic sustainability is currently at high risk, and that the unequal resources of the various countries in subsidizing national airlines could generate a competitive imbalance in the future.