Abstract

Taking a global view, we have a three-speed world economy. There is the fast track comprising the OECD countries plus East and South-east Asia although, as implied above, even fast trains slow down from time to time and there is not necessarily harmony among the passengers. At the other extreme we have the slow track — Africa, and a certain number of countries in other regions. And then there are a great number of countries on an intermediate track — most of Latin America, South Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Whether these latter countries will be able to join the fast track or fall back into the slow track will make a world of difference. Obviously there is nothing new in countries developing at different speeds. This has always been the case. But what is new in the present situation is that all countries are no longer moving in the same direction. Some of them, and in particular those on the slow track, are moving in a different, if not totally opposite, direction from the fast-track countries.

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