Abstract
In this paper, we estimate the sensitivity of the fuel and travel demand with respect to the fuel price and the income variation, in the case of the road transport in Tunisia, during the 1987-2016 period, resorting to two different econometric approaches: the error correction model (ECM) and the dynamic model. The price and income elasticity estimation, in the long term and the short term, allow the assessment of the direct rebound effects. We shall show that (1) the dynamic model is considered to be the most appropriate approach for our database; (2) the fuel price increase, in both the short term and long the long term, has a negative impact on the energy consumption. Hence, we recommend the public decision-maker to review his/her energy subsidies, in order to improve the energy efficiency in the road transport sector and to control the CO2 emissions; (3) an increase of the income entails an increase of the energy consumption and, hence, the travel demand; (4) the rebound effects from the fuel price increase will be compensated in the form of a more significant fuel use indicate that if the energy efficiency increases by 1%, 0.21% and 0.29% of the savings resulting.Keywords: Fuel and travel demand elasticities; the rebound effect; the error correction model; the dynamic model. JEL Classifications: L91, Q43, Q54, R48DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11456
Highlights
The transport sector in Tunisia is considered to be one of the most fossil-energy-consuming sectors, 2.2 million tons of oil equivalent (TOE) and 55% of the petroleum product consumption1, which could reach 5 million tons in 2030
We brought to light the main determinants of the fuel demand and travel demand in Tunisia, and we have measured their impact on consumption
In this article, we focused on the estimation of fuel and travel demand elasticities with respect to the fuel price and incomes, we have deduced the direct rebound effects
Summary
The transport sector in Tunisia is considered to be one of the most fossil-energy-consuming sectors, 2.2 million (metric) tons of oil equivalent (TOE) and 55% of the petroleum product consumption, which could reach 5 million tons in 2030. The energy conservation in the transport sector represents, a national priority. To reach this goal, the public authorities and, the National Agency for Energy Conservation (NAEC), in Tunisia, has implemented several incentive policies about improving the energy efficiency in the road transport sector (energy audits and program contracts, motor vehicle diagnosis stations, trainings about rational driving in the transport sector, etc.). The expected energy efficiency gains would be partly annihilated by the adverse effects of individual behavior
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