The digital divide in state vulnerability to submarine communications cable failure

Abstract

The backbone network of submarine communication cables (SCC) carries 98% of international internet traffic. Coastal and island states strongly depend on this physical internet infrastructure to provide internet connectivity. Although about 100 SCC breakdowns of human or natural origin occur at yearly average, a literature review reveals that there is no approach to assess individual state vulnerability to SCC failure in global comparison. In this article, the global SCC network is modeled based on publicly available data. Besides the analysis of the global network properties, a focus is put on remaining bandwidth capacities in three different failure scenario simulations of SCC breakdowns. As a result, this study identifies 15 highly vulnerable states and overseas territories, and another 28 territories that are classified as partially vulnerable to SCC failures. Since economic market decisions shape the structure of the SCC network, an uneven distribution of redundancies and the resulting vulnerability of disadvantaged economies can be confirmed. Therefore, the study's findings may contribute to a better assessment of the necessity of preventive protection measures of critical telecommunication infrastructures in states and territories characterized by high and medium vulnerability.