The Diffusion Rule of Demand-Oriented Biogas Supply in Distributed Renewable Energy System: An Evolutionary Game-Based Approach

Abstract

Biogas can be regarded as a dispatchable renewable source when changing into the demand-oriented operation mode (DO), thus could be used for complementing with solar and wind power in distributed energy system (DES) as a substitute for chemical energy storage. However, if the DO is implemented in regional DES, uncertainties are emerged caused by the complex interest interaction between the seller and the buyer groups formed by the biogas plant and the DES’s dispatching center, thus making the development trend of DO unknown. In this context, this study explored the diffusion law of DO in regional DES by establishing a mathematical model based on an evolutionary game between the two major stakeholders, during which the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) was deduced for understanding their strategy selections, and then the dynamic diffusion trend was simulated by the system dynamics via a case example. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of parameters is carried out and the optimal policy instruments are proposed according to the main influencing factors. The study revealed that when the DES can realize monetized returns from socio-environmental benefits, the adoption of DO becomes more feasible. Importantly, the revenue generated from electricity sales, by the dispatching center when they do not utilize biogas, emerged as the most critical parameter influencing the ultimate outcomes. The limitations of this research and modeling are discussed to lay a foundation for further improvement.