Abstract
The risk perception paradox illustrates the perception of natural hazards as not directly related to a willingness to act or engage in precautionary behavior. Yet the utilization of participatory processes can help to overcome this gap. In a practical example in the watershed of the Danube River and its contributing streams in Germany, we aimed to solve questions about the value of participatory modeling as a method to bridge the gap linked to flood polder planning and a relocation of a dike for protection against high floods (centennial floods and rarer). Local communities, citizen initiatives, and nongovernmental environmental organizations joined together for round table discussions initiated by the water management authorities. A participatory modeling process enabled these diverse stakeholders to engage with the experts who built the groundwater models for the planning process. As part of this study, two case studies are presented. In the first example, neutral mediators assisted the round table “Flood Polder Katzau (Danube)” in order to cultivate mutual trust and understanding between the authorities and the former opponents of the project. This process is still ongoing, challenged by long-term planning and the more immediate obstacle of current political changes. The second case study is located on the river Alz, a tributary of the river Inn, which flows into the Danube, where the relocation of a dike was planned. This article demonstrates how participatory modeling contributes to bridging the gap between a local resident’s risk perception and real action in the case of flood preparedness.
Highlights
The theoretical background of flood risk perception is helpful in order to understand the two case studies in the article
The problem, which occurs in all planning processes that are meant to prepare communities for flood hazards, is that most people see a potential risk of flooding in the future but do not want to take action in the present
The participants of the round table were provided with the chance to talk to other contract-holders and to decide together about the collection of participants, the time frame, and the missing expertise to answer the main question: do we really need a flood polder in Katzau or a dike relocation in Hirten? What are the risks and what are the chances involved? Neutral facilitation made it possible for the round table to find a consensus on the participatory process before the answers to the main question were discussed
Summary
The theoretical background of flood risk perception is helpful in order to understand the two case studies in the article. The theoretical background is a study review on risk perception in Europe, which identified a paradox between risk perception and precautionary action. 15% climate change addition) flood disasters in this region, the most influential determinant of flood risk perception has been identified as flood experience (direct and indirect) Intervening variables such as trust in authorities and experts shape risk perception (Wachinger et al 2013). In certain cases, trust in authorities resulted in a higher risk perception and a lower willingness to take personal action This occurred because people waited to act; trusting in responsible authorities to take action first. There is a paradox in practical flood preparedness (indicated in Fig. 1 by a lightning bolt): even if willingness to act leads to preparedness, the last step to personal action is often not undertaken
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