The Differential Effects of Population Aging on Provincial GDP Per Capita and the Role of Productivity Growth as a Possible Offset

Abstract

A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialised countries throughout the world and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for the ten provinces of Canada, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. For comparison, as possible alternative offsets, we consider also some changes relating to the supply of labour.