The diagnostic value of machine-learning-based model for predicting the malignancy of solid nodules in multiple pulmonary nodules

Abstract

Objective: To examine the efficiacy of a machine learning diagnostic model specifically for solid nodules in multiple pulmonary nodules constructed by combining patient clinical information and CT features. Methods: Totally 446 solid nodules resected from 287 patients with multiple pulmonary nodules in Department of Thoracic Surgery, Peking University People's Hospital from January 2010 to December 2018 were included. There were 117 males and 170 females, aging (61.4±9.9) yeras (range: 33 to 84 years). The nodules were randomly divided into training set (228 patients with 357 nodules) and test set (59 patients with 89 nodules) by a ratio of 4∶1. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to generate a predictive model (PKU-ML model) on the training set. The accuracy was verified on the test set and compared with previous published models. Finally, an independent single solid nodule set (155 patients, 95 males, aging (62.3±8.3) years (range: 37 to 77 years)) was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model for predictive value of single solid nodules. Area of receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate diagnostic values of models. Results: In the training set, the AUC of the PKU-ML model was 0.883 (95%CI: 0.849 to 0.917). In the test set, the performance of the PKU-ML model (AUC=0.838, 95%CI: 0.754 to 0.921) was better than the models designed for single pulmonary nodules (Brock model: AUC=0.709, 95%CI: 0.603 to 0.816, P=0.04; Mayo model: AUC=0.756, 95%CI: 0.656 to 0.856, P=0.01; VA model: AUC=0.674, 95%CI: 0.561 to 0.787, P<0.01), similar with PKUPH model (AUC=0.750, 95%CI: 0.649 to 0.851, P=0.07). In the independent single solid nodules set, the PKU-ML model also achieved good performance (AUC=0.786, 95%CI: 0.701 to 0.872). Conclusion: The machine learning based PKU-ML model can better predict the malignancy of solid nodules in multiple pulmonary nodules, and also achieved a good performance in predicting the malignancy of single solid pulmonary nodules compared to mathematical models.