The Development of Stable Party Preferences

Abstract

This article investigates to what extent party preferences learned during adolescence are stable over time. Using a recently administered two-wave panel survey among 15- and 16-year-old adolescents and their parents in Belgium (Parent–Child Socialization Study, 2012–13), we find that more than 50 per cent of the adolescents intends to vote for exactly the same party in both waves. The data suggest that the traditional explanations for this stability that apply for adult voters do not apply for younger adolescents. The strength of one’s party preference and the consistency between attitudes and a vote choice do play a role in explaining party preference stability in this age group, but the main explanation can be found in the correspondence with one’s parents. Adolescents who have the same party preference as their parents, are far more likely to have a stable preference than those who formed their initial preference independently.