Abstract
In general, the development of agricultural land usage change was illustrated through linear trend analysis without comparing it first with other trend analysis. As a consequence, it was assumed that the data will be in a straight line with a tendency for constant numbers over a period of time. However, the facts on the ground proved that the area of ??agricultural land converted into non-agricultural land was not always the same from year to year. The novelty of this research was to do a comparison between linear and non-linear trends to predict the development of rice fields, so that an accurate forecasting model was obtained. The aim of this research were: 1) knowing the development of rice fields area in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, 2) determining the appropriate forecasting model for the development of rice fields area in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, and 3) forecasting the area of ??rice fields in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The data that used came from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics) from 1996 to 2017. The trend models being compared were linear trends, quadratic trends, and exponential trends. The results showed that the area of ??rice fields in the Special Region of Yogyakarta tended to decrease from year to year. The best forecasting model was an exponential trend. In 2017 to 2021, it was estimated that there will be a decrease in rice field area of ??221 hectares or 0.41 percent per year.
Highlights
Technology in the agricultural sector which was growing even in the stage of digitalization, still cannot replace the strategic role of land as a production factor
Besides the number of tourists increased from time to time, the average length of stay of tourists in star and non-star hotels in Special Region of Yogyakarta increased from 2017 to 2018 by 0.02 points for foreign tourists to 2.13 days, and 0.01 points for domestic tourists to 1.98 days
Special Region of Yogyakarta got the nickname as the center of education
Summary
Technology in the agricultural sector which was growing even in the stage of digitalization, still cannot replace the strategic role of land as a production factor. (Adimihardja, 2006; Isa, 2006; Catur et al, 2010; Ritung, 2010; Maulana & Ma'rif, 2019; BPS, 2020). Among the various types of land available, rice fields played an important role as a major producer of food, which was paddy that will be processed into rice. For this crucial role, the availability of rice field area data was important, because it can provide an overview of the amount of food available or can be linked to food security in an area (Irawan & Ariningsih, 2010). The impact, if the exporters experienced a production disruption, there will be turmoil in the region of rice importers, which was generally indicated by an increase in prices which resulted in a decrease in consumer purchasing power (Zulfikar et al, 2013; Abdillah & Zaini, 2018)
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