The development of prediction model on irradiation embitterment for low Cu RPV steels

Abstract

The development of prediction model on irradiation embitterment (PMIE) of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is an important method for nuclear reactor long term operation. Based on the physical mechanism of RPV irradiation embrittlement, a preliminary model is determined and the critical threshold of Cu content of 0.072% is obtained according to this preliminary model. Then a prediction model named PMIE-2020 for low Cu RPV steels is developed. At last the residual, standard deviation and predicted values and test values distribution analysis are given. Simultaneously, a comparison between PMIE-2020 and other prediction model and irradiation data is provided. Results indicate that the predicted results of PMIE-2020 has no tendency with influence factors such as neutron fluence, flux, irradiation temperature, chemical elements Cu, P, Mn, Ni, Si. The residual standard deviation is 10.76 °C, which is lower than present prediction model. The distribution between predicted values of PMIE-2020 and test values are located the area near the 45° line. These results prove that the PMIE-2020 have high accuracy on irradiation embrittlement prediction.