Abstract
The development of a parametric model for the variable portion of the Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH) of an ‘unknown’ aircraft platform and its application to diverse types of fixed and rotary wing aircraft development programs (F-35A, Su-57, Dassault Rafale, T-X candidates, AW189, Airbus RACER among others) is presented. The novelty of this paper lies in the utilization of a diverse sample of aircraft types, aiming to obtain a ‘universal’ Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) applicable to a wide range of platforms. Moreover, the model does not produce absolute cost figures but rather analogy ratios versus the F-16’s CPFH, broadening the model’s applicability. The model will enable an analyst to carry out timely and reliable Operational and Support (O&S) cost estimates for a wide range of ‘unknown’ aircraft platforms at their early stages of conceptual design, despite the lack of actual data from the utilization and support life cycle stages. The statistical analysis is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, conducted with R software (v5.3.1, released on 2 July 2018). The model’s output is validated against officially published CPFH data of several existing ‘mature’ aircraft platforms, including one of the most prolific fighter jet types all over the world, the F-16C/D, which is also used as a reference to compare CPFH estimates of various next generation aircraft platforms. Actual CPFH data of the Hellenic Air Force (HAF) have been used to develop the parametric model, the application of which is expected to significantly inform high level decision making regarding aircraft procurement, budgeting and future force structure planning, including decisions related to large scale aircraft modifications and upgrades.
Highlights
At the present environment of decreasing defence budgets, obtaining the right balance among the components of force structure, modernization, readiness and sustainability of an Air Force is extremely challenging and requires careful analysis of the cost data
Other potential uses of Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH) estimates are for flying hour reimbursable billing rates, in other words estimating how much other governmental agencies, foreign militaries and any other customer should be charged on a per-flying-hour basis, given the variety of services an Air Force owned fleet can offer
CPFH estimates are essential in comparing the Operational and Support (O&S)
Summary
At the present environment of decreasing defence budgets, obtaining the right balance among the components of force structure, modernization, readiness and sustainability of an Air Force is extremely challenging and requires careful analysis of the cost data. Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH) is the main metric that many Air Forces are using to develop operating and support budgets and is defined as [1]: CPFH =. Air Forces and aircraft operation organizations across the world use CPFH estimates mainly to budget resources to achieve aircrew proficiency. CPFH estimates are essential in comparing the Operational and Support (O&S). CPFH estimates are multiplied by projected flying hours and the projected budget requirements feed the decision-making process of the organization. Selected prior work which deals with the complexities, the challenges, the strengths and the weaknesses of the CPFH method is discussed below
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