The development of a novel framework based on a review of market penetration models for energy technologies

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate models used to assess the market penetration of energy technologies. While there are different models and tools, choosing the appropriate approach for a particular application is very challenging. In this paper, each model is reviewed and discussed extensively and a hierarchy diagram is developed to help choose a model. Market penetration models based on subjective estimation and market survey could be individual-dependent and not reliable for long-term forecasts. Cost estimation, diffusion, and econometric models offer more reliable results both for short- and long-term forecasts. Based on the review, a new combined model was developed and applied to a case study. The combined use of different market penetration models offers more accurate and robust results, as demonstrated in the case study.