The development of a hybrid model to forecast paddy water temperature as an alert system for high‐temperature damage

Abstract

AbstractClimate change has led to increasing global air temperatures. In the field of crop cultivation, long‐term high temperatures (heatwaves) during the rice‐growing season might increase the risk of high‐temperature damage to rice, which might result in reductions to the yield and quality of rice. In this study, a hybrid forecast model consisting of a combined paddy field heat balance model and a meteorological forecast model is proposed for predicting 1‐day‐ahead water temperatures as an alert system for high‐temperature damage to paddy fields, with resolution in terms of hours. The results show close agreement between the measured and predicted water temperatures, and the high‐temperature alert accuracy was 88.5%. Additionally, the climate resilience of paddy fields was investigated by using the rising annual temperatures due to climate change. The observations indicate that while paddy fields are sensitive to the climate, their climate resilience can be improved through artificial measures. Farmers and managers of paddy fields can thus be made aware of the water temperatures of the paddy fields in advance to enable reasonable management of water resources and avoid high‐temperature damages caused by extreme weather conditions.