Abstract
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their corresponding targets are significantly interconnected, with many interactions, synergies, and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This paper proposes a framework for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system in order to analyze such SDG interactions. We focused on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India, within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. It is densely populated with 4.4 million people (2011), high levels of poverty, and a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. It is adjacent to the growing megacity of Kolkata. The area also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest––the Sundarbans––hosting the iconic Bengal Tiger. Like all deltaic systems, this area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating across scales. The IAM framework is designed to investigate socio-environmental change under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios and explore associated policy impacts, considering a broad range of subthematic SDG indicators. The following elements were explicitly considered: (1) agriculture; (2) aquaculture; (3) mangroves; (4) fisheries; and (5) multidimensional poverty. Key questions that can be addressed include the implications of changing monsoon patterns, trade-offs between agriculture and aquaculture, or the future of the Sundarbans’ mangroves under sea-level rise and different management strategies. The novel, high-resolution analysis of SDG interactions allowed by the IAM will provide stakeholders and policy makers the opportunity to prioritize and explore the SDG targets that are most relevant to the SBR and provide a foundation for further integrated analysis.
Highlights
The United Nations’ 2030 Development Agenda is a set of internationally agreed upon goals that provide a comprehensive strategy to guide policy and action toward sustainable development [1]
The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the 169 targets, universally adopted by all UN member states, recognize that human development and well-being is dependent on the Earth’s natural systems and that neither socio-economic nor environmental goals can be achieved in isolation [2]
As part of an integrated assessment tool, this paper aims to design a modeling framework, including participatory input, that can be used to explore socio-ecological interactions related to several SDGs in a deltaic environment
Summary
The United Nations’ 2030 Development Agenda is a set of internationally agreed upon goals that provide a comprehensive strategy to guide policy and action toward sustainable development [1]. The modelling framework is able to assess multiple delta-specific biophysical and socioeconomic processes under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios, allowing present and future trade-offs and synergies between SDGs and their related targets to be assessed In this case, it has the potential to inform strategies across multiple sectors, such. Within this section we describe (1) stakeholder participation and policy analysis to identify key drivers, interactions, and trends within the system; (2) the key issues to explore within the SBR, as determined by likely synergies or trade-offs in policy areas and stakeholder interests; (3) scenarios of change to address future uncertainty in the development of the SBR system; and (4) the development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) framework, which will allow current and future trends in environmental change and policy decisions to be explored across a broad range of biophysical and socio-economic processes.
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