The development and use of quantitative models of diffusion of new information technologies

Abstract

The development and use of new quantitative models is viewed as part of research and information activities. An attempt has been made to identify indexes that are used by participants in information support to appraise alternative methods of control over the diffusion of innovations. The participants include a decision-making entity, an analyst, and a measurer. The development of the model of the diffusion of the Internet in Russia, which makes it possible to calculate the dynamics of the reach of the Internet for different periods (1 month, 1 week, and 1 day), is taken as an example. Possible factors of differences between the new actual data of mass-scale sampling surveys and the predicted data that were published by the authors in 2008---2011 are discussed.