Abstract

The determination procedure of the onset of the object wear-out period based on monitoring of the empirical failure intensity function

Highlights

  • In all periods of the object life cycle the number of failures needs to be forecasted

  • Relevant literature presents mathematical models that assist the process of reaction to object failure e.g. [2, 3, 10, 12], procedures that describe and compare classes of forecast models (e.g. [4, 17]) or assist in the forecasting of failures of nonrenewable technical objects in the wear-out period (e.g. [10, 12])

  • In [2] a method is proposed of detecting the onset of the object wear-out period and determining the maintenance efficiency based on, as the authors of [2] would call it, a step model of aging and the Bayes techniques

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Summary

Introduction

In all periods of the object life cycle the number of failures needs to be forecasted. Science and Technology parameters of the operating time distribution until failure The significance of this issue is supported by other authors ([1]) by mentioning the return point of the failure intensity function as useful in terms of maintenance and risk analysis related to failures. In relevant literature it is difficult to indicate formal algorithms allowing the determination of the onset of wear-out periods Few publications in this matter pertain mainly to the attempts to find new forms of functions describing the processes of object operation [6, 9] or focus on modeling of the entire course of the function of failure intensity ([19]). The intention of the authors of this paper is to present the procedure of estimation of the onset of the wear-out period of objects based on the empirical function of failure intensity without having information on the reliability function

Formal description of the procedure
General mathematical model
Concept and main assumptions where
Detailed mathematical model and the method algorithm
Example of procedure realization
Conclusions
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