The determinants of the return on index bonds

Abstract

The investor holding an index-linked bond is guaranteed a given real income irrespective of the prevailing inflation rate. The holding-period return (HPR) on such a bond should, therefore adjust to realized inflation; this is the firsthypothesis tested. The value of the bond may also change due to anticipated changes in the real interest rate which should themselves be related to uncertainty about future inflation; hence HPRs on linked bonds may vary with inflation uncertainty (second hypothesis). Furthermore, for bonds with long periods of time to maturity the effect of uncertainty about future inflation rates may be rather small so that as we approach maturity, the effect of inflation uncertainty should increase (third hypothesis). These three hypotheses are tested on a sample of eight Israeli index-linked bonds with maturities three months apart. The first hypothesis is supported by the data but the last two are not.