Abstract
This paper reformulates Brueckner's model of residential succession and tests the predictive capability of two discriminant models. Model A uses the Brueckner variables, and Model B is Model A plus two urban renewal variables and a variable measuring the direction of residential succession in the previous decade. Empirical tests are based on a composite set of census tracts within the City of Pittsburgh, 1950–1960 and 1960–1970. Inclusion of the additional variables and disaggregation of the model by relative income position within the central city (Low, Moderate, Middle, and High) adds a new policy dimension by increasing the predictive capability of the model by about one-third for all central city tracts and nearly three-fourths for moderate income tracts.
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