The Determinants of Provincial Presence at the CCP Central Committees, 1978–2002: an empirical investigation

Abstract

Drawing on provincial-level time-series cross-section data for the period of 1978–2002, I test hypotheses on the determinants of Chinese Communist Party Central Committee (CC) membership shares for incumbent officials from different provinces. I find that officials from more populous provinces tended to take up higher alternate CC membership shares, but lower full CC membership shares. While urbanization is negatively associated with provincial alternate CC membership shares, there is little support for the role of other economic variables. The constrained nature of alternate CC membership implies greater ‘symbolic representation’ for the more populous and rural provinces on the national level in this period. These findings, based on considerations of distinct categories of CC membership, do not corroborate arguments sweepingly attributing CC representation to either provincial economic resources or performance.