The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China

Abstract

Abstract. In the context of global warming and China's disaster response patterns, it is critical to understand how to promote the effectiveness of household flood protection measures among the public. In this study, we developed a comprehensive theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to identify the main determinants that influence urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk. In addition to the fundamental factors in PMT, this framework also considered the influence of individual coping attitudes and social context. We selected urban residents in flood-prone areas of Henan Province as the study population as well as collected 857 valid questionnaires through an online survey. Firstly, the results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal of flood risk are effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. Secondly, negative risk-coping attitudes reduced people's intention to prepare. If people do not perceive preparedness actions as absolutely necessary, they will postpone them or shift their focus to public flood protection measures. In addition, analysis of affective pathways revealed that negative emotion (worry) was primarily influenced by perceptions of flood consequences and was not significantly related to perceptions of likelihood. The analysis of trust mechanisms showed that higher levels of trust in public flood protection reduced people's perceptions of flood risk, thereby hindering their intention to prepare for flood risk. Finally, we found that the positive influence of social norms on preparedness intentions makes it appropriate to focus on the power of social mobilization. The findings will provide theoretical references for government departments to design further policy measures to improve integrated flood risk management in China.