Abstract
Junior scientists face much gloomier prospects than they have in past decades: worse prospects of success in grants, more time in post-doctoral fellowships, and less chance of achieving independence as the head of their own laboratory. This paper develops a preliminary model of the career cycle of scientists, that attempts to incorporate some of the explanations in the empirical literature (Jones 2009, 2010, Stephan 2012) in a fully specified model. It also offers some alternative explanations within the same framework.
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