The demographic revolution in England: a re-examination.

Abstract

Wrigley and Schofield recently argued that from 1541 to 1841 real wages, acting on nuptiality, determined English fertility, with a lag of roughly 40 years. Correcting Wrigley and Schofield's real wage series and dividing nuptiality shifts into changes in the incidence and the timing of marriage reveal several new phenomena. First, wage shifts acted with a lag of only 15–20 years and affected only the incidence of marriage. Secondly, before 1750 changes in the incidence of marriage created a homoeostatic equilibrium, as periods of population growth and proletarianization showed substantial withdrawal from the marriage market, reducing fertility and population growth. Thirdly, after 1750 this homoeostatic equilibrium broke down. Despite rapid population growth and proletarianization, fertility rose because of the unprecedented emergence of a group of ‘young marriers’, comprising roughly 20 per cent of the population. Their emergence probably reflected the increasing availability of steady employment for proletarianized workers provided by the Industrial Revolution. There was thus a sharp change in nuptiality determination in England about 1750.