The demographic dividend: challenges to employment and employability

Abstract

The concept of demographic dividend is a major policy issue in India. In order to study the employment and employability scenario, we have taken the existing series forward to 2026 for both the population and labour force by age, sex and residence for all the states and Union Territories while using the latest data sets. The Indian discussion on the issue of demographic dividend has concentrated on the broad age group of 15–59 years. We also look at trends for the disaggregated age groups of 15–29, 30–44, and 45–59 years, as their paths differ considerably from those of the aggregate. Three major findings may be highlighted. Firstly, the surge in the working age population would comprise growing numbers of older workers, many of whom have missed out on education and training opportunities. A massive programme of adult education and training for older workers is needed. Secondly, there are wide regional variations in labour force growth patterns. This calls for the creation of a national labour market wherein regional shortages and surpluses are adjusted. Finally, the current low female participation rates conceal a potential demographic dividend, which can be reaped by adopting measures to expand the level of female education and labour force participation rates.