Abstract
Although the effects of urban shrinkage on quality of life and the built environment have received a great deal of attention, the characteristics of those experiencing these impacts have been much less studied. This is ironic, as urban shrinkage or depopulation is by nature a demographic phenomenon: city sizes evolve precisely because people move in and out, are born, and die. Moreover, the demographic processes that contribute to shrinking cities—out-migration and death—are selective and so they also govern who remains behind in cities as they shrink. It is this latter group that is the focus of this research. The analysis contributes to the literature on shrinking cities through its novel consideration of community-level exposure to depopulation. In particular, it investigates who is impacted by loss; the extent to which population loss is experienced disproportionately across urban space and demographic subgroups; and whether decline occurring at multiple spatial scales magnifies exposure for some groups more than others. Findings show that, at both city and census tract levels, demographic characteristics of growth and loss areas are different and, at all levels, some groups are more likely than others to be living in a loss-impacted area.
Highlights
As a subject of research, shrinking cities have garnered attention from across the social sciences
Paired with the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics listed above, the analysis shows who bears the burden of decline across multiple levels of geography
Age and race/ethnicity data come from the 2010 decennial census; poverty status and income inequality data come from the 2009–2013 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates
Summary
As a subject of research, shrinking cities have garnered attention from across the social sciences. Population geography and demography, have been largely absent from this discussion This is interesting and, especially, ironic, as shrinking cities and urban decline are fundamentally about people: people out-migrating, suburbanizing, dying, or aging, and how many people are living in affected areas and what sorts of demographic characteristics they possess. Such demographic insights are valuable from a practical perspective. This paper explores just one aspect of the demographic element of urban decline: who and how many are affected by recent population loss in US cities This basic question, to which we do not as yet have answers, offers important foundational knowledge about the demographic characteristics of shrinking cities
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