The demise of the INF Treaty: a path dependence analysis

Marco Cepik,Augusto C Dall’Agnol

doi:10.1590/0034-7329202100202

Marco Cepik, Augusto C Dall’Agnol

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329202100202

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Abstract

This article explains changes in strategic stability through a path dependence framework, discussing its antecedent conditions, increasing returns, cleavages, critical junctures, reactive sequences, and legacy. We identify the leading causes of its formation, reproduction, modification, and, eventually, its end. Such an analysis is relevant as far as we observe significant changes in cornerstone’s aspects of strategic stability after the abrogation of the ABM Treaty and the INF Treaty. We argue that strategic stability as an institution passes through radical modifications produced by reactive sequences breaking the causal loop that allowed its reproduction since its formation.

Highlights

We argue that strategic stability as an institution passes through radical modifications produced by reactive sequences breaking the causal loop that allowed its reproduction since its formation
Systemic great power competition is back (Haffa Jr. 2018; O’Rourke 2019), and it directly relates to the future of strategic stability
The current Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) of the U.S focuses on developing new nuclear capabilities and limiting war escalation damage (United States of America 2018)

Summary

Introduction

Systemic great power competition is back (Haffa Jr. 2018; O’Rourke 2019), and it directly relates to the future of strategic stability. In military terms, when the U.S develops new capabilities (nuclear and enabling technologies), in conjunction with decisions to abandon the formal pillars of strategic stability as an institution, these actions set in motion a complex interactive process. Strategic stability as an institution results from both material (second-strike capability) and normative factors (treaties) that exhibited self-reinforcing sequences, or increasing. To deny other states the ability to disarm one’s retaliatory strike capacity with a first strike, more aggressive postures and additional defensive and offensive capabilities are required These legacy reproduction mechanisms further undermine strategic stability as the three great powers try to guarantee a most advantageous position when the time comes to lock in new institutional arrangements. We are witnessing the decay of a self-undermining institution

10 The demise of the INF Treaty: a path dependence analysis

Result

Conclusion