The Delphi panel method for generating health information

Abstract

In 1991 the African Medical and Research Foundation (AMREF) tested the feasibility of a modified Delphi panel method in rural Africa. It used data from a simultaneous household health survey conducted in the same villages as the method to assess the Delphi methods validity. AMREF chose 26 panel members from 12 villages in Kibwezi Division of Machakos District in Kenya where most people belong to the Kamba tribe and the illiteracy rate is about 50%. Since some panel members had poor reading and writing skills AMREF used trained interviewers to present the questionnaires which covered water and sanitation illness incidence and prevalence maternal and child health and expectations and attitude. The interviewers retained anonymity. There were 3 rounds of interviewing. The most important perceived cause of morbidity and mortality for both adults and children less than 45 years old was malaria. Diarrhea was the second most important perceived cause of morbidity in children and mortality in adults. Panel members believed that at least 50% of pregnant mothers sought prenatal care more than 50% of children were immunized and less than 25% of children were malnourished. The most frequent perceived chronic illnesses or disabilities were inability to move limbs sight problems and fits. Bad diet and contaminated food or fruits were the main perceived causes of sickness. Panel members perceived that about 75% of the households had latrines and most households improperly disposed of refuse. They thought that peoples health will improve with the anticipated improved health care services and people will use traditional healers less often. The panel studys results were essentially consistent with the household survey. The Delphi panel study cost US$ 3527 but did not include staff time doing the literature review and discussing methodological options. The most expensive parts were in order feedback data processing and panel selection. These findings indicate that the Delphi panel method may be useful for local health planners and management. Further methodological research is needed however.