The Delayed Memory Controversy in an Epidemiological Framework

Abstract

Epidemiological concerns about base rates, true and false positives, and the possibility of an epidemic of therapy-induced false memories are frequently raised in the debate over delayed memories of childhood sexual abuse (CSA). Most references to epidemiological concepts emphasize the potential problem of false positives arising from therapists' assessments of CSA but neglect the potential problem of false negatives. A more balanced epidemiological analysis that includes estimations of the risks of both false positives and false negatives is more relevant to clinical concerns and better identifies gaps in our understanding of this area. This article presents estimates for certain epidemiological variables based on available research and a range of suppositions. The evidence at hand suggests that the rate of false negatives for CSA history poses a larger epidemiological problem than the rate of false positives.